What are the blockbuster product dependence rankings of pharmaceutical enterprises in 2016?

Blockbuster product dependence rankings of pharmaceutical industry

CPhI.CN

Note: Only pharmaceutical enterprises with market value higher than USD 30 billion were included, and the NPV of pharmaceutical product was mainly based on the general sales forecast.

Comments on the representative enterprises

First tier

Dependence of CSL Behring and AbbVie on single product reached the acme, with the NPV of the immune globulin intravenous Privigen of the former for chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy and the "blockbuster" drug Humira of the latter reaching USD 33.9 billion and USD 87.5 billion separately, both accounting for more than 80% of the market value of both companies, ranking the top two in the blockbuster product dependence ranking list of pharmaceutical industry.

It is not surprising that the NPV of Humira accounted for 81% of the market value of AbbVie, which explains the company’s fierce resistance to biosimilars, but the newly marketed oncology drug ibrutinib (Imbruvica) of AbbVie also accounted for 18% in the company’s market value with USD 19.4 billion NPV, placing AbbVie at risk.

As a pioneered oral Bruton’s tyrosine kinase (BTK) inhibitor, ibrutinib plays the anticancer role by inhibiting the BTK required for tumor cell replication and transfer. Ibrutinib was approved by FDA in November 2013 to treat patients with mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) who have received at least one prior lenalidomide or other drug therapy. Ibrutinib has been approved 4 indications both in the U.S. and Europe so far.

Humira’s key compound patent will expire in December this year, but the biosimilar of the drug cannot be marketed only until 2022 owing to the drug’s other more than 50 patents, including process and preparation patents, etc.

In addition, ibrutinib will not be off-patent until 2027, however, AbbVie still needs fresh blood, which explains why it has been the "buyer" spending the most among the large pharmaceutical companies in the last few years.

Second tier

Pharmaceutical companies at high risk also include Regeneron and BMS. The ophthalmic drug aflibercept (Eylea) of the former with NPV of USD 28 billion, and the immune checkpoint inhibitor Opdivo of the latter with NPV of USD 76.7 billion have separately become the most important asset of respective companies, and separately ranked third and fourth in the blockbuster product dependence ranking list of pharmaceutical industry. These two enterprises would be at high risk if the salable products had "something unexpected".

What is interesting is that the USD 76.7 billion NPV of Opdivo was more than twice the USD 33.7 billion of Keytruda, a drug of the same kind of MSD. The latter is the first immune checkpoint inhibitor marketed in the U.S., but Opdivo has surpassed it in the quantity of approved indications and thereby achieved reversal. And the canny marketing strategy has also helped BMS seize 85% immune checkpoint inhibitor market.

Third tier:

Celgene had quite high dependence on lenalidomide which had the NPV of USD 49 billion, accounting for 59% in the company’s market value. Seen from the above situation, the present situation is unfavorable for Celgene. The company hoped to extend the life cycle of lenalidomide by increasing new indications, but this hope was hit after the new clinical trial of lymphoma treatment showed poor results.

Now, Celgene will shift focus to follicular lymphoma which is the next biggest indication that it is studying. The results of this Relevance clinical trial will be announced in the first half of 2017. But even with this trial reaching the endpoint, it also could not ease the pressure faced by Celgene. Celgene needs badly one new "blockbuster" drug in the long run.

The reason for Gilead’s low ranking in the list was mainly due to the USD 26.6 billion NPV of its HCV drug Harvoni, which only accounted for 23% of the company’s market value, however, the NPV of its wider HCV drug product portfolio including Sovaldi, Harvoni and the latest approved all-genotype HCV drug Epclusa reached USD 43 billion, making its position rise from 13^th to 7^th in the list.

The several HCV treatment products of Gilead have opened the era turning HCV treatment from injection to oral and its anti-HCV drugs such as Sovaldi have opened the revolutionary era of complete cure of HCV, but it is such excellent drug that makes Gilead face huge downward pressure. The sales performance of Harvoni is estimated to decline by nearly 30%, according to the 2017 global pharmaceutical report recently issued by evaluate pharma.